YU Haijing1，3, ZHANF Qingguo2, LI Tan2, CHENG Mengdi1, ZHANG Ning1，4, DONG Shijie1
(1.School of Resources and Environment, Anhui Agricultural University, Anhui, Hefei 230036, China;
2. School of Science, Anhhui Agricultural University, Anhui, Hefei 230036,China;
3.Xinxiang Meteorological Bureau, Henan, Xinxinag 453003, China; 4.Fuyang Meteorological Bureau, Anhui, Fuyang 236015, China; )
Abstract: According to Lhasa stations solar radiation observation data during the period from 2012 to 2014, actual observations of daily solar radiation and estimation values from 3 estimation models, Zuo Dakang, Prescoff and Wang Bingzhong et al. estimation models, were tested and analyzed. The results showed that all of the 3 models can pass the significance test. The mean absolute error (MAE) were 6.17 MJ/(m2？d), 6.42 MJ/(m2？d) and 12.31 MJ/(m2？d), and the root mean square error (RMSE) were 1.60 MJ/(m2？d), 1.65 MJ/(m2？d) and 2.78 MJ/(m2？d), respectively, for Zuo Dakang, Prescoff and Wang Bingzhong et al. estimation models, indicating that the Zuo Dakang estimation model, which uses geographic location information and sunshine hours is better than Prescoff and Wang Bingzhong estimation models in estimating the total solar radiation in Lhasa. The daily solar radiations in Lhasa, Nagqu and Geer areas in 2015 were estimated using the Zuo Dakang estimation model and statistical verifications were employed. The changes and periodic characteristics of solar radiation in Lhasa from 1971 to 2015 were analyzed and the time scale effects of daily solar radiation estimation model were studied. According to time scales of 11 years and four seasons, the linear regression was used to analyze errors and correlations between daily solar radiation estimations and actual observations, the obtained empirical parameters, a and b, showed a certain relationship with the time scale, except of summer, the fitting accuracies for both time scales of 11-year and four-season were improved. Using linear regression, the optimal estimation model of solar radiation in Tibet for 45 years were obtained, , the estimation error of daily solar radiation by the above model was smaller than by the Zuo Dakang model, and the estimation accuracy was also higher.
Key words: daily total solar radiation; Tibet; time scale; estimation model
EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Vol.47, No.1, Tot No.327, 2019, Page 43-49