WANG Long1,2 XU Gang2,3 YANG Juan4
1.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;
2. School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715, China;
3.Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Environment,Ministry of Education,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;
4.Department of Tourism and Service Management,Chongqing College of Education,Chongqing 400067,China)
Abstract: Disaster risk is one of the core topics in the current disaster research. It is of great significance for regional integrated disaster prevention to quantify the risk, clarify risk elements and its mechanism.On the basis of research in mountainous urban disaster system,conceptional model of disaster system fuzzy risk proposed as "R = H × E × S / C", a preliminary"assessment index system of mountainous urban disaster system fuzzy risk" was established, in order to reflect elements of the risk: hazard,vulnerability,exposure,sensitivity and disaster coping capacity in each unit respectively;comprehensive empowered fuzzy evaluational model was also adopted for risk assessment and sorting. An empirical research was implemented in Chongqing City with 38 districts and counties as basic units,then fuzzy risk levels were classified and reasons were also explained preliminarily. Following conclusions were drawn: (1) Mountainous urban disaster fuzzy risk assessment results based on "comprehensive empowered(AHP-EVM)" fuzzy evaluation model own high reliability, and can reflect elements of fuzzy risk. This research results were validated and consistent with "fuzzy matter-element evaluation".(2) The fuzzy risk of disaster system level in Chongqing is moderate. Meanwhile Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District, Chengkou County, Fengjie County and Youyang County stand high disaster system risk; these areas are the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.
Keywords: mountainous city; disaster system; fuzzy risk; comprehensive assessment; comprehensive empowerment; Chongqing
EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Vol. 43, No.3, Tot No.305, 2015, Page 322-330
